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News on Monday, July 31, 2006
Two bites of the cherry
How do you calculate the odds of something occurring if you have two bites at the cherry? For example you have a four flush in hold'em with two cards to come.
The most accurate method is simulating the situation on a computer and running it many thousands of times. Mathematically it can be done as follows:
Probability of winning =
1 - the probability of not making it the first time x probability of not making it the second
You hit the flush about 1 in 3. Thus you win 1 - 2/3 x 2/3 = 5/9.
Sport
News on Sunday, July 30, 2006
New era for Rangers to start with a win
The new Rangers era under new manager Paul Le Guen begins with a trip to Motherwell who have their boss Maurice Malpas also making his SPL debut in the dug-out.
Le Guen has arrived from Lyon with a big reputation and will be expected to wrest the title back from rivals Celtic at the first time of asking.
In recent decades, only John Greig failed to win the title in his first season as Gers boss which puts even more pressure on the Frenchman.
Fir Park witnessed a 4-4 draw when Celtic were the visitors on the opening day of last season but we are unlikely to see another such result again this time.
We think the Ibrox side will just have a little too much quality against a side that is likely to field three Rangers rejects.
Bet Direct are offering 10/3 for the draw at half-time with Rangers ending up the victors. We shall gladly take some of that. Vive la Revolution!
Sport
News on Friday, July 28, 2006
Kilmarnock to achieve the impossible
League football in Scotland begins weeks ahead of the English season and we will probably again witness the traditional battle for the SPL title between Celtic and Rangers.
The Parkhead club are reigning champions and kick-off their campaign with a home game against Kilmarnock - a side they haven't lost to in Glasgow in 51 years!
Despite the poor form shown by Gordon Strachan's side in pre-season - they lost 3-0 to a second string Manchester United side at home on Wednesday - that kind of historical form is hard to ignore.
However, in the best traditions of the valiant tipster, ignore it we will!
Killie have had an impressive pre-season but more importantly, their wonderfully caustic manager Jim Jefferies retains the settled side which did so well last season.
The stuttering Hoops will be nervous in front of their own supporters who remain far from convinced about the merits of Strachan despite his title triumph last season.
So we will be bold. Bet Direct are offering a healthy 10/1 for the away win which we will snap up albeit in a little fit of pre-season optimism.
Sport
News on Thursday, July 27, 2006
Going Green in Gut Kaden
After Tiger Woods' emotional victory at the British Open at Liverpool last weekend, (in which the bookies took a pounding) we turn our attentions to Gut Kaden for the Deutsche Bank Championship.
A strong field will be on show but the European Tour's big guns cannot be in great shape after their shocking display en masse at Hoylake last week.
Spanish master Sergio Garcia headed the Europeans' charge but it was all too little too late and the Tiger won out of sight.
Garcia is favourite with many firms and Angel Cabrera, who was runner up in this event 12 months ago, is also been quoted as a bookie's favourite.
However, for a value bet, we will stick a few pounds on Richard Green, despite the left-hander not even making the cut in the Open.
However, Green's form in general has been encouraging and in a much less intense field, he could make a real impact.
Sport
News on Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Desert a good Thursday bet
Escape Clause is a false favourite in the 3.50 Sandown; he is a morning glory - works well at home but 'ducks it' on the racecourse. Desert Authority has been working well but you can never discount a Tregoning runner of this sort. While the Stoute favourite is a hot-pot (the situation won't last), you can back Desert Authority and save on the Tregoning
5pts win DESERT AUTHORITY
1pt win MULAAZEM both 3.50 Sandown
Mick Channon should land the opener at Bath with Bataleur, but the each-way bet of the meeting is Me (4.35) who is the lead horse for Dutch Art at home and can now come into his own in a small field of moderate animals.
2pts each way ME 4.35 Bath
And the Channon horse I want to be on is Rocamadour (7.30) at York tonight. At home he is a lot better on fast ground than Hazeymm and Championship Point.
5pts win ROCAMADOUR 7.30 York
Sport
News on Tuesday, July 25, 2006
En Prison a good option
With this rule in place, which not all casinos offer, (and so therefore is a subject worth looking into when picking an online casino to play roulette at) the House Edge can be brought down to 1.35%. It states that when a 0 (and 00 for the American version) is landed by the roulette ball, all even money bets are not lost, but are rather afforded the opportunity to stay on the board for the next bet, or be taken back by the player. In the long run, this rule can be the deciding factor on whether a player ends in the red or not.
It may not even come into play during a round of roulette. However, the fact that it can be exercised is quite reassuring, made evident by a House Edge reduced by half. Las partage, also called the Surrender rule, governs even money wagers in the same fashion, except that it returns half of the wager, thereby returning a 2.6% House Edge.
Sport
News on Monday, July 24, 2006
Hearts for comfortable Champions League debut
Hearts' first ever Champions League game sees them take on Bosnian champions Siroki Brijeg in Edinburgh in the first leg of the second qualifying round.
Interestingly, the match will take place at Murrayfield, home of Scottish Rugby, instead of the more atmospheric Tynecastle to maximise the financial killing the Jambos hope to make in this historic fixture.
Surprisingly, the Scottish Cup holders haven't added to their squad in the close season and for various reasons are without three of their most influential players from last campaign, defender Andy Webster and midfielders Rudi Skacel and Paul Hartley.
However, there is still enough talent at coach Valda Ivanauskas's disposal to finish this tie against the unknown Bosnians before the return game next week.
The odds on a straight win for Hearts doesn't excite us so we will take Bet Direct's 11/2 for the correct scoreline of 2-0 with a side bet of 3-0 at 7/1.
Sport
News on Sunday, July 23, 2006
Early season double
Sunday sees some interesting friendly matches, none more so than when Arsenal open their new Emirates Stadium for Denis Bergkamp's testimonial against Ajax.
The stunning 60,000-capacity ground will this weekend play host to its first game when the famous Dutch side provide the opposition in Bergkamp's sold-out benefit game.
The Gunners are sure to be determined to give the veteran striker a good farewell and start off life at their new home with a victory.
Bet Direct will give you 4/6 for a home win which is not great in itself but when doubled up with the 11/4 on offer for Everton to beat Celtic at Parkhead then the double becomes attractive.
Gordon Strachan's side have been less convincing in a traumatic pre-season to date and could find the Merseysiders another source of misery.
Sport
News on Saturday, July 22, 2006
Woods not past the post yet
The Open Golf Championship is gearing up to a thrilling finale on Sunday at Hoylake with just one shot separating four of the biggest names in the sport.
Tiger Woods, who looked like turning it into a procession at the halfway stage, found life tougher on Saturday particularly with his putting and ended with a third round score of 71 - the same as playing partner Ernie Els.
That's enough to give him a one shot lead going into the final round ahead of Els, Di Marco and Garcia who shot a superb 65.
Woods is trying to become the first man to make a successful defence of the title since Tom Watson in 1983 Woods and since he has won all his 10 majors from the top of the leaderboard on the final day he remains the favourite.
But this is far from over and small bets on Di Marco and Garcia at 10-1 and 7-1 respectively will give you a great run for your money.
Sport
News on Friday, July 21, 2006
Back the raider at Market Rasen
2.05 Market Rasen: The bees are buzzing as ever around a Pipe contender and A.P.'s mount, leaving DUNE RAIDER at a nice each-way price for a horse that just does enough and is down near the bottom of the handicap.
2pts each way DUNE RAIDER @ 9-1
3.30 Newbury: A tough sprint followed by a very open mile-straight handicap, then this 23-runner lottery! But is it such a lottery ? If the race follows the stats, only certain trainers with horses drawn very high or low can win it.
The pace seems to be with the high numbers, and NINA BLINI is drawn highest of all. Fillies do well in this race and she can get Royal Ascot revenge on Gilded, who has an awkward stall-14 draw. ICE MOUNTAIN has been well backed this morning (master tactician Philip Robinson rides from the 18 box).
1pt e.w. each ICE MOUNTAIN 9-1
and NINA BLINI @ 12-1
Sport
News on Thursday, July 20, 2006
Hibs to boost our profits
We got off to a good start to our European season as we tipped Linfield to get a draw at 4/1 with Bet Direct in their midweek Champions League qualifier away at NK Gorica.
We hope to build on that early boost in the much maligned Intertoto Cup and this time it's Scottish side Hibernian who could make us a few bob.
Tony Mowbray's men are 1-0 down to Danish club Odense going into the second leg at Easter Road but the visitors are in something of a turmoil.
The Danish club's manager Bruce Rioch - yes, the former Arsenal boss - is in conflict with his board with a sense of depression enveloping the players.
Bet Direct offer 10/11 for the home win is to be doubled up with Gent to beat Grasshoppers later in the day at the same price.
Sport
News on Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Linfield to grab second round draw
There seems to be no break in the football calendar and just days after Italy dramatically won the World Cup against France in Berlin, European club football for season 2006/07 is underway.
The Champions League qualifiers are up and running and there is some early British interest in the first round.
However, Linfield's hopes of progressing in Europe for a second successive season were hit hard by a 3-1 home defeat against Slovenian side NK Gorica at Windsor Park.
But we are confident that the Belfast side, who were a bit unlucky at home, will recover to get a draw in the second leg and Bet Direct's 4-1 is too tempting to miss - so we won't.
Sport
News on Tuesday, July 18, 2006
New rules to allow TV ads
While the US gets tougher about gambling, the UK is softening its stance on what the sector can do.
New plans to allow casinos, betting shops and other forms of gambling to advertise on TV have moved a step closer.
It comes with a public consultation on new rules to ensure gambling adverts are "socially responsible".
Proposed guidelines set out content restrictions for gambling adverts in both the broadcast and print media.
They follow the Gambling Act 2005 which gives gambling operators greater scope to publicise their services.
The rules will take effect from September 2007 when the Gambling Act comes fully into force.
Operators can advertise across all types of media after that date - providing they comply with the new content rules.
TV adverts for betting, gaming and lotteries are currently banned except the National Lottery and some other exceptions. Print ads are also heavily restricted.
The Advertising Standards Authority will police the new gambling adverts to ensure they comply with content guidelines.
Sport
News on Saturday, July 15, 2006
Take Clarke to recover losses
At the halfway stage of the Scottish Open our two original picks appear to be out with the washing so it's time for some damage limitation.
Goosen and Olazabal and well off the pace – and we turn to the leader Darren Clarke to get losses back.
The recommendation is that you bet the current three shot leader (around 11-8) to recover the bets on Goosen and Olazabal. Sometimes with betting you just have to accept that a profit can't be made so the next best thing is to break even.
Darren Clarke fired a six-under-par 65 on Friday to move three shots clear and put a maiden win of the season within sight. The 37-year-old Ulsterman, who has not finished higher than third this season, shot seven birdies to build on his first-round 66 and move to 11-under.
Sport
News on Friday, July 14, 2006
Public best option
The John Smith's Handicap at York (3.55) is Saturday's main event and the prize pool of £150,000 has guaranteed a competitive - if slightly sub-standard renewal.
Top weight is I'm So Lucky who made all the running to win the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot - springing a 16-1 surprise. That win launched a real resurgence of form for trainer Mark Johnston who saddled another two winners on the same card and has been in good form since.
Favourite in the Ascot race was Public Forum who disappointed when back in 12th but may be worth another chance today. He was hitherto unbeaten and went into the race the 7-2 favourite on the strength of wins at Goodwood, Nottingham and Sandown. He wasn't given a hard race once his chance had gone at Ascot and his finishing position is deceptive. With I'm So Lucky burdened with an extra 5lb for his win, Public Forum is given another chance to recover punters losses.
Impeller makes a lightning quick reappearance after his win at Epsom on Thursday night when he started the 14-1 outsider of four. However, he is a little quirky these days and his form shows that Epsom is a course that he enjoys. York is a different track altogether.
Great Plains won nicely over this trip at Salisbury and appeals as a sound each-way proposition. He's been relatively lightly raced and could still be well handicapped.
Recommended Bets
1 point each way PUBLIC FORUM
1 point each way GREAT PLAINS
Sport
News on Thursday, July 13, 2006
Takeover to turnaround form
The speed merchants take centre stage at Newmarket on Friday with the six furlong July Cup the highlight of the three-day Festival.
Seventeen runners go to post and form students will be focussing on the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot for clues. The first five home that day take each other on again today and punters will be looking for an easier to predict race today. Les Arcs (33-1) beat Balthazar's Gift (50-1) at Ascot - in one of the biggest upsets of the season so far.
Les Arcs had previously been better known for his all-weather exploits rather than a Group 1 sprinter - and almost incredibly has an eighth of 12 over two miles at Cartmel in his form figures from 2004 !!
However, it may be foolhardy to dismiss the win as a total fluke and there is no reason why Les Arcs shouldn't excel himself again - however Takeover Target (third in the Golden Jubilee) made a bold bid to win his second race of the week at Royal Ascot and after a break may get a lot closer. He has fared well with a number one draw so will have the rail to help his challenge.
He looks one to keep on the right side of and we'll couple him with a longer priced selection.
There was a 22-1 winner of this race last year and at around those odds if not bigger Ashdown Express maybe worth a small investment each-way.
Like Takeover Target, he is also a seven-year-old and has run well in this race in the past.
Recommended Bets
2 points win TAKEOVER TARGET
1 point each-way ASHDOWN EXPRESS
Sport
News on Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Nannina to upset Soviet
The fillies take centre stage at Newmarket on Wednesday when small but select fields go to post for today's two feature races - the Cherry Hinton Stakes at 2.35 and the Falmouth Stakes at 3.10.
In the Falmouth, no surprises that Soviet Song heads the market as favourite to make history and win this race for third time in-a-row.
She beat the odds-on Attraction in 2004 and then easily accounted for Alexander Goldrun last year when today's rival Peeress was back in third. There's no obvious reason why Sir Michael Stoute's runner should turn that form around.
Soviet Song comes to this race in great heart fresh from winning the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot in style. That was arguably not the greatest quality Group 2 event so she had every right to win it well.
Whether she represents good value is debatable as the presence of NANNINA could spoil the party.
Three years younger than the favourite, Nannina came unstuck in soft ground (and a less then perfect preparation) in Speciosas Guineas but then shone last time out at Royal Ascot when winning the Group 1 Coronation Stakes a race over the same one mile and good to firm ground that she will encounter today.
He price looks a much better proposition in a race where the formbook says the pair will dominate.
We'll stake in such a way that well happily take a small loss on Soviet Song but go for the profit on Nannina.
3.10 RECOMMENDED BETS
1 point win SOVIET SONG
2 points win NANNINA
Sport
News on Tuesday, July 11, 2006
Fallon's fate again in balance
Kieren Fallon's immediate fate is again in the balance as his legal team launch their appeal against his suspension at the HRA on Wednesday.
Fallon will not be at the hearing as he has six booked rides at Naas. He is still allowed to ride in his native Ireland. Speculation is that Fallon's lawyers may try to persuade the panel to allow Fallon to ride in Group races.
Rumours of a jockeys strike in support of Fallon and the two other suspended riders Darren Williams and Fergal Lynch have been dismissed as nonsense.
You can be sure that a lot of punters will have a view on whether his appeal will succeed or not - but so far in this country the outcomes of legal cases are not permitted to be wagered upon.
Quite unlike the States where bookmakers will quite openly take bets on the outcome of far more serious cases including murder.
Sport
News on Monday, July 10, 2006
Loch Lomond's Scottish Open
Some great golf action to look forward to this week with the Scottish Open from Loch Lomond getting underway on Thursday.
Apart from anything else it should give us plenty of form clues for next week's big one - The Open - this year at Hoylake.
Ernie Els who has struggled to recapture top form since recovering from a knee injury tops the betting at a best priced 14-1.
We prefer compatriot Retief Goosen at 16-1 who won the event in 2001 and Jose Olazabal at a tasty 33-1.
We'll update the blog with some more bets at the halfway stage when hopefully the prices on the above two players will have contracted.
Sport
News on Sunday, July 09, 2006
World Cup Final - we're saying 0-0
It's time for the big one as Italy take on France for the biggest prize in football.
Zinedine Zidane is bidding to bring the curtain down on his glittering career by lifting the World Cup trophy for the second time in eight years.
The 34-year-old France captain will retire from professional football after tonight's final against Italy as will 1998 World Cup winner Liliam Thuram.
Italy will be hoping to spoil the party and gain revenge on France following their Euro 2000 final defeat.
Both teams named unchanged sides for the showcase game in Berlin.
Penalties will decide the outcome if it is a stalemate after 90 minutes and extra time and we feel it may well go that far.
With so much at stake we're not expecting many goals in 90 minutes and will take the 4-1 about it being 0-0 after 90 minutes.
Sport
News on Saturday, July 08, 2006
Hosts to claim World Cup third spot
It's perhaps one of the biggest anti-climax events in sport with little more than pride at place in the World Cup playoff tonight which sees hosts Germany take on Portugal.
Germany captain Michael Ballack has been ruled out and Oliver Kahn starts in goal.
Ballack will rest the calf injury which has plagued him throughout the World Cup - and is also suffering from an inflamed left knee, with the German FA saying: "The doctors strongly advise against him playing."
Germany boss Jurgen Klinsmann will be without injured defenders Philipp Lahm and Per Mertesacker, while star striker Miroslav Klose is struggling with a calf problem but should start.
In terms of a bet it should be noted that this fixture often produces a glut of goals unlike some of the recent games. Germany have impressed far more than Portugal and deserve bronze in a World Cup which they can take pride in as hosts.
We expect a German win inside 90 minutes and suggest you snap up the 4-5 generally available.
Sport
News on Friday, July 07, 2006
Federer to crush Nadal on grass
This year's Wimbledon tournament has been rather overshadowed by a certain event taking place in Germany but it will get centre stage on Sunday for the Mens Final ahead of the World Cup Final later in the day.
So far the mens competition has gone to form and as the pre-tournament odds suggested Roger Federer will take on Rafael Nadal in the final.
Roger Federer is confident his Wimbledon experience and supremacy on grass will enable him to hold off the growing challenge of Rafael Nadal in Sunday's final.
The Swiss ace is favourite to lift a fourth successive title but the 20-year-old Spaniard goes into the match with the upper hand, having beaten the world number one in four finals already this year, most recently at the French Open a month ago when he thwarted Federer's bid to hold all four Grand Slam titles.
However, their last three meetings have all been on Nadal's favourite clay surface and Federer, who has won his last 47 matches on grass going back to the first round of Wimbledon in 2002, believes the young Spaniard is still getting to grips with the faster game.
Federer to win 3-0 is only around evens but we really can't see any other result.
Sport
News on Thursday, July 06, 2006
Cannot control Lady Luck
All gambling involves luck. While luck tends to even itself out over the long run, people naturally focus on the short run and on their fluctuations.
Because gambling involves randomness, people will often blame or chalk up their luck to some random event that coincided with how they fared at a certain gambling session. This may be as innocent as believing in a lucky shirt. However, some people take these superstitions too far. They start to believe that if they constantly move seats or change their socks that they will somehow become the next WSOP winner.
You cannot affect the 'luck' factor of gambling. Luck evens itself out over the long run. The only thing you should concern yourself at the poker table is playing well. If you play very well at poker, you will win over the long run. If you do not play well, you will lose. It's as simple as that.
Sport
News on Wednesday, July 05, 2006
Channon to taste Newbury success on Thursday
Newbury stage a typically competitive night's racing on Thursday when big fields are the order of the day.
Trainer Mick Channon is in good form and often introduces some of his best two-year-olds at the course - so it will be well worth following FEREEJI in the 6.30 race - a race he won last year with Queen Of Fire. Channon also saddles newcomer Moddlij in this year's race - but jockey bookings suggest that Fereeji, under Tony Culhane is the one most likely to make an impact. Fereeji is well-bred and will hopefully start at a price big enough to make him a cast-iron each-way bet.
Only Kilburn and Tracer have racecourse experience and the former shaped well on his racecourse debut at Goodwood when third to Prince Of Elegance and should improve for that run.
Sport
News on Tuesday, July 04, 2006
Another World Cup 0-0
Italy and Germany provided the match of the tournament so far on Tuesday when penalties looked destined to decide the fate of the first finalist until Italy grabbed two in the dying stages of extra time.
On Wednesday the other finalist will be known - Portugal or France - either way we feel Italy will be the favourites to lift the World Cup on Sunday.
Portugal put out England on Saturday on penalties whilst France have been improving with every match and a goal from Henry was good enough to see them past favourites Brazil in the Quarter Finals.
One thing is becoming increasingly apparent - goals are becoming increasingly scarce as the World Cup draws to its finale as teams fear losing more than wanting to win games.
With this in mind we forecast another scoreless draw after 90 minutes with a good chance of penalties being needed again.
0-0 is trading at around 5-1 which will do us nicely.
Sport
News on Monday, July 03, 2006
Fallon charges rock world of horse racing
Racing has yet again hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons with the news on Monday that City of London police have charged 11 people - including former champion jockey Kieren Fallon - as their ongoing investigation into horse racing corruption.
Police said the charges were in relation to allegations of fixing the outcomes of races between December 1, 2002 and September 2, 2004.
It remains unclear whether Fallon will be allowed to continue to ride - although he has been cleared to race in Ireland.
Denis Egan, chief executive of the Irish Turf Club, said: 'Basically the situation in Ireland is that he will be able to continue to ride.
'The licensing committee will obviously note what has happened but as far as we are concerned Kieren Fallon is innocent until proven guilty.'
The police swoops followed alleged irregular betting on the internet exchange Betfair.
Betfair passed records from its tracking of betting patterns to the Jockey Club.
Whilst betting exchanges have proved revolutionary for punters they have also undoubtedly opened a door of opportunity for race fixers.
The outcome of this case will be pivotal - not just for betting exchanges but for punters confidence in horse racing generally. If the charges are proven the damage could be irreversible.
Sport
News on Sunday, July 02, 2006
Murray to keep the flag flying
Andy Murray is back on Centre Court at Wimbledon on Monday after a highly impressive straight sets demolition of Andy Roddick.
After the defeat of England in the World Cup - and the early exit of Tim Henman - Murray will now have the weight of the nations attentions on his young shoulders.
On paper the 19-year-old faces an easier task on Monday than he did when facing Roddick - he plays Australian Open Finalist Marcos Baghdatis in an attempt to get to the last eight. Baghdatis has been hit with recent injuries and will also have a partisan crowd to contend with.
Murray is as short as 4-9 progress - which is exactly what we think he'll do.
Sport
News on Saturday, July 01, 2006
Turning $30 into $5 million
In what other activity other than poker can you take $30 and parlay it up into a $5 million jackpot by skill? But it ain't easy and it takes time.
First you play in an online tournament which gets a seat in a satellite, which would otherwise have cost you $210 to enter. Then you play the satellite and survive perhaps 10 hours hard grind to win your place in the $10,000 buy-in World Series. Then you win the World Series.
Unsurprisingly, if you succeed in doing so, you have won an extremely odds-against parlay. Perhaps it was 25 million/1. But the odds were fair and the percentage taken by the organisers very reasonable. Also, don't despair if you fail to win the event, finishing in the top 10 should provide a life-changing win for most people.
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