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Poker News on Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Poor percentage play

Poker tournaments can be extremely artificial. Take the following scenario: You hold AD AC and have only 1.000 left in chips last in hand. There are only three of you left and the prizes are £5000, £3000, £2000. The other two players each have 99,500 chips. They each go all in before you ever make a move.

It is mathematically correct to pass. You are big odds on to win the pot, but so what? You will still only have 3,000 in chips. The winner of the side pot will have 197,000 in chips. It will still be an up mountain battle. But you will almost certainly come second, if you pass. Risking £1000 for a tiny chance of winning a further £2000 is a poor percentage play.


Poker News on Sunday, February 26, 2006

Raising on a Morton's Fork

You have 9D8D. There has been a bet before the flop which you called. The flop is AD 9C 3D. There is a bet. Against one opponent you must have either the best made hand or the only flush draw.

Such a possibility I refer to as an example of Morton’s Fork, after the income tax inspector in medieval times. He worked on the principle that if a member of the gentry were living in apparent poverty, he must be concealing his wealth. If he were living high on the hog, then he could again afford heavy taxes.

In such circumstances you are entitled to raise. You are either winning or have a strong drawing hand. Your opponent needs such as A-8 or A-A to be favourite against your holding. Even if the worst comes to the worst, you are better than 2/1 against winning the pot.